# Tuesday, April 12, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

Theory 2 - These results are based on the major factor : Anti-Incumbency wave (5%) swing


ADMK + :               142
DMK + :               91


ADMK+ :               70
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 62

DMK+ :                43
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) :     120
     Tossup :           48
     50(admk) - 50      (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) :     48
     50 - 50(dmk)      (ie., but inclined towards DMK) :     24

Others (including BJP) :           1




Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvallur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
2PonneriADMK
4TiruvallurADMK
5PoonamalleeADMK
6AvadiADMK
9MadavaramADMK
1GummidipundiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai North
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
15Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar50 - 50
10Thiruvottiyur50(admk) - 50
12PeramburADMK
17RoyapuramADMK
13KolathurDMK
11Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai South
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
22VirugampakkamADMK
23SaidapetADMK
24Thiyagarayanagar50 - 50
25MylaporeADMK
26VelacheryADMK
27ShozhinganallurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai Central
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
16EgmoreDMK
14Villivakkam50 - 50(dmk)
19Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni50 - 50(dmk)
20Thousand Lights50 - 50
21Anna Nagar50(admk) - 50
18Harbour50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Sriperumbudur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
31Tambaram50(admk) - 50
7MaduravoyalADMK
8AmbatturADMK
28Alandur50(admk) - 50
30Pallavaram50 - 50
29SriperumbudurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kancheepuram
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
36Uthiramerur50(admk) - 50
34Cheyyur50(admk) - 50
32Chengalpattu50 - 50
37KancheepuramDMK
35Maduranthakam50(admk) - 50
33Tirupporur50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Arakkonam
 
DMK+ : 4   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
3TiruttaniDMK
41Ranipet50 - 50(dmk)
38Arakkonam50 - 50(dmk)
42ArcotDMK
39SholingurDMK
40KatpadiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Vellore
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
43VelloreDMK
48Ambur50 - 50(dmk)
44Anaicut50 - 50
47VaniayambadiDMK
46Gudiyatham50 - 50(dmk)
45Kilvaithinankuppam50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Krishnagiri
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
52Bargur50(admk) - 50
54Veppanahalli50 - 50
51UthangaraiADMK
55Hosur50 - 50(dmk)
56Thalli50(admk) - 50
53Krishnagiri50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Dharmapuri
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
61HarurDMK
57Palacode50 - 50(dmk)
59Dharmapuri50 - 50(dmk)
58Pennagaram50 - 50(dmk)
60PapireddippattiDMK
85Mettur50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvannamalai
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
64Kilpennathur50 - 50(dmk)
62Chengam50 - 50
63TiruvannamalaiDMK
65Kalasapakkam50 - 50(dmk)
49Jolarpet50 - 50
50Tiruppattur50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Arani
 
DMK+ : 4   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
69VandavasiDMK
70Gingee50 - 50
66PolurDMK
68CheyyarDMK
71Mallam50 - 50
67ArniDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Viluppuram
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
76Tirukkoyilur50(admk) - 50
73Vanur50(admk) - 50
74VillupuramADMK
77UlundurpetADMK
72Tindivanam50(admk) - 50
75VikaravandiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kallakurichi
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
83Yercaud50(admk) - 50
82Attur50 - 50
80Kallakurichi50(admk) - 50
79Sankarapuram50 - 50(dmk)
78RishivandiamADMK
81Gangavalli50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Salem
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 5   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
89Salem NorthADMK
91Veerapandi50(admk) - 50
88Salem WestADMK
84OmalurADMK
86EdapadiADMK
90Salem SouthADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Namakkal
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 6  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
92Rasipuram50(admk) - 50
94Namakkal50 - 50
95Paramathi Velur50(admk) - 50
87Sankari50 - 50
96Tiruchengode50 - 50
93Sendamangalam50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Erode
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 6  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
98Erode East50(admk) - 50
100Modakurichi50 - 50
102Kangayam50(admk) - 50
101Dharapuram50 - 50
99Erode West50 - 50
97Kumarapalayam50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruppur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
113Tiruppur NorthADMK
105Andhiyur50(admk) - 50
104BhavaniADMK
103Perundurai50(admk) - 50
106GobichettipalayamADMK
114Tiruppur SouthADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Nilgiris
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
109GudalurDMK
107Bhavanisagar50 - 50
108UdhagamandalamDMK
110CoonoorDMK
111Metuppalayam50 - 50
112AvanashiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Coimbatore
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
117Kavundampalayam50(admk) - 50
116Sulur50 - 50
121Singanallur50(admk) - 50
118Coimbatore NorthADMK
120Coimbatore South50 - 50(dmk)
115Palladam50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Pollachi
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
122KinathukkadavuADMK
123PollachiDMK
124ValparaiDMK
125Udumalaipettai50 - 50
126Madathukulam50 - 50
119ThondamuthurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Dindigul
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
131NathamADMK
132DindigulADMK
129AthoorDMK
128Oddanchatram50 - 50
130Nilakottai50(admk) - 50
127PalaniADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Karur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
134Aravakurichi50 - 50
133VedasandurADMK
138ManaparaiADMK
136KrishnarayapuramADMK
135KarurADMK
179Viralimalai50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruchirappalli
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
142ThiruveramburADMK
141Thiruchirappalli East50 - 50
140Thiruchirappalli West50 - 50
178Gandharvakottai50(admk) - 50
139SrirangamADMK
180PudukkottaiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Perambalur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
137Kulithalai50 - 50
144ManachanallurADMK
146Thuraiyur50 - 50
147Perambalur50(admk) - 50
145Musiri50 - 50
143LalgudiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Cuddalore
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
155Cuddalore50 - 50
153Neyveli50(admk) - 50
154PanrutiADMK
156Kurinjipadi50 - 50(dmk)
152Vridhachalam50(admk) - 50
151Tittakudi50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chidambaram
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
148Kunnam50 - 50(dmk)
149Ariyalur50 - 50(dmk)
158ChidambaramDMK
150JayankondamDMK
157Bhuvanagiri50 - 50
159KattumannarkoilDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Mayiladuturai
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
160Sirkali50 - 50
162PoompuharADMK
161MayiladuturaiADMK
172Papanasam50(admk) - 50
171Kumbakonam50(admk) - 50
170Thiruvidamarudur50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Nagapattinam
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
163Nagapattinam50(admk) - 50
165Vedaranyam50 - 50(dmk)
168TiruvarurDMK
169Nannilam50 - 50
166ThiruthuraipoondiADMK
164KilvelurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Thanjavur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
173Thiruvaiyaru50(admk) - 50
167Mannargudi50(admk) - 50
177Peravurani50(admk) - 50
176Pattukkottai50 - 50
174ThanjavurDMK
175OrathanaduADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Sivaganga
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
185TiruppatturADMK
182Alangudi50(admk) - 50
184Karaikudi50(admk) - 50
181Thirumayam50(admk) - 50
186SivagangaADMK
187ManamaduraiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Madurai
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
188MelurDMK
194Madurai West50 - 50(dmk)
189Madurai EastDMK
191Madurai North50 - 50
192Madurai South50 - 50
193Madurai CentralDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Theni
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
190SholavandanADMK
199PeriyakulamADMK
200BodinayakkanurADMK
201CumbumADMK
198AndipattiADMK
197UsilampattiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Virudhunagar
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
207Aruppukottai50 - 50
204Sattur50(admk) - 50
206VirudhunagarADMK
205SivakasiADMK
196Thirumangalam50 - 50(dmk)
195ThirupparankundramADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Ramanathapuram
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
211Ramanathapuram50(admk) - 50
209Paramakudi50(admk) - 50
210Tiruvadanai50 - 50
212Mudukulathur50(admk) - 50
208Tiruchuli50(admk) - 50
183ArantangiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Thoothukkudi
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
218KoilpattiADMK
214Thoothukkudi50 - 50
216Srivaikuntam50 - 50
215TiruchendurDMK
217OttapidaramADMK
213Vilathikulam50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tenkasi
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
219SankaranayanarkoilADMK
203SrivilliputhurADMK
221KadayanallurADMK
222TenkasiADMK
202RajapalayamADMK
220VasudevanallurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tirunelveli
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
224Tirunelveli50 - 50
228RadhapuramADMK
227NanguneriDMK
225AmbasamudramADMK
226PalayamcottaiDMK
223Alangulam50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kanniyakumari
 
DMK+ : 5   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
229KanniyakumariDMK
230NagercoilBJP
231ColachelDMK
232PadmanabhapuramDMK
233VilavancodeDMK
234KilliyoorDMK
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