# Tuesday, April 12, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

Theory 3 - These results are based on the major factor : (a) Anti-Incumbency wave - (5%) swing & ( b) Family based politics & Corruption (2%) swing


Highly probable !!
ADMK + :               173
DMK + :               60


ADMK+ :               113
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 105

DMK+ :                43
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) :     77
     Tossup :           7
     50(admk) - 50      (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) :     57
     50 - 50(dmk)      (ie., but inclined towards DMK) :     13

Others (including BJP) :           1




Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvallur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
2PonneriADMK
4TiruvallurADMK
5PoonamalleeADMK
6AvadiADMK
9MadavaramADMK
1GummidipundiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai North
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
15Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar50(admk) - 50
10ThiruvottiyurADMK
12PeramburADMK
17RoyapuramADMK
13KolathurDMK
11Dr. Radhakrishnan NagarADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai South
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
22VirugampakkamADMK
23SaidapetADMK
24Thiyagarayanagar50(admk) - 50
25MylaporeADMK
26VelacheryADMK
27ShozhinganallurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai Central
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
16EgmoreDMK
14Villivakkam50 - 50(dmk)
19Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni50 - 50(dmk)
20Thousand Lights50(admk) - 50
21Anna NagarADMK
18HarbourADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Sriperumbudur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
31TambaramADMK
7MaduravoyalADMK
8AmbatturADMK
28AlandurADMK
30Pallavaram50(admk) - 50
29SriperumbudurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kancheepuram
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
36Uthiramerur50(admk) - 50
34Cheyyur50(admk) - 50
32Chengalpattu50(admk) - 50
37KancheepuramDMK
35MaduranthakamADMK
33Tirupporur50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Arakkonam
 
DMK+ : 4   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
3TiruttaniDMK
41Ranipet50 - 50
38Arakkonam50 - 50
42ArcotDMK
39SholingurDMK
40KatpadiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Vellore
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
43VelloreDMK
48Ambur50 - 50(dmk)
44Anaicut50(admk) - 50
47VaniayambadiDMK
46Gudiyatham50 - 50(dmk)
45Kilvaithinankuppam50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Krishnagiri
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
52BargurADMK
54Veppanahalli50(admk) - 50
51UthangaraiADMK
55Hosur50 - 50
56ThalliADMK
53Krishnagiri50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Dharmapuri
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
61HarurDMK
57Palacode50 - 50(dmk)
59Dharmapuri50 - 50(dmk)
58Pennagaram50 - 50
60PapireddippattiDMK
85Mettur50 - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvannamalai
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
64Kilpennathur50 - 50(dmk)
62Chengam50(admk) - 50
63TiruvannamalaiDMK
65Kalasapakkam50 - 50
49Jolarpet50(admk) - 50
50Tiruppattur50 - 50(dmk)

Parliamentary Constituency :    Arani
 
DMK+ : 4   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
69VandavasiDMK
70Gingee50(admk) - 50
66PolurDMK
68CheyyarDMK
71Mallam50(admk) - 50
67ArniDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Viluppuram
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
76TirukkoyilurADMK
73VanurADMK
74VillupuramADMK
77UlundurpetADMK
72TindivanamADMK
75VikaravandiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kallakurichi
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
83Yercaud50(admk) - 50
82Attur50(admk) - 50
80Kallakurichi50(admk) - 50
79Sankarapuram50 - 50
78RishivandiamADMK
81Gangavalli50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Salem
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
89Salem NorthADMK
91VeerapandiADMK
88Salem WestADMK
84OmalurADMK
86EdapadiADMK
90Salem SouthADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Namakkal
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
92RasipuramADMK
94Namakkal50(admk) - 50
95Paramathi VelurADMK
87Sankari50(admk) - 50
96Tiruchengode50(admk) - 50
93Sendamangalam50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Erode
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
98Erode EastADMK
100Modakurichi50(admk) - 50
102KangayamADMK
101Dharapuram50(admk) - 50
99Erode West50(admk) - 50
97Kumarapalayam50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruppur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
113Tiruppur NorthADMK
105AndhiyurADMK
104BhavaniADMK
103PerunduraiADMK
106GobichettipalayamADMK
114Tiruppur SouthADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Nilgiris
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
109GudalurDMK
107Bhavanisagar50(admk) - 50
108UdhagamandalamDMK
110CoonoorDMK
111Metuppalayam50(admk) - 50
112AvanashiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Coimbatore
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
117KavundampalayamADMK
116Sulur50(admk) - 50
121SinganallurADMK
118Coimbatore NorthADMK
120Coimbatore South50 - 50(dmk)
115Palladam50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Pollachi
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
122KinathukkadavuADMK
123PollachiDMK
124ValparaiDMK
125Udumalaipettai50(admk) - 50
126Madathukulam50(admk) - 50
119ThondamuthurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Dindigul
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
131NathamADMK
132DindigulADMK
129AthoorDMK
128Oddanchatram50(admk) - 50
130NilakottaiADMK
127PalaniADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Karur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 5   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
134Aravakurichi50(admk) - 50
133VedasandurADMK
138ManaparaiADMK
136KrishnarayapuramADMK
135KarurADMK
179ViralimalaiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruchirappalli
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
142ThiruveramburADMK
141Thiruchirappalli East50(admk) - 50
140Thiruchirappalli West50(admk) - 50
178GandharvakottaiADMK
139SrirangamADMK
180PudukkottaiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Perambalur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
137Kulithalai50(admk) - 50
144ManachanallurADMK
146Thuraiyur50(admk) - 50
147PerambalurADMK
145Musiri50(admk) - 50
143LalgudiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Cuddalore
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
155Cuddalore50(admk) - 50
153NeyveliADMK
154PanrutiADMK
156Kurinjipadi50(admk) - 50
152VridhachalamADMK
151Tittakudi50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chidambaram
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
148Kunnam50 - 50(dmk)
149Ariyalur50 - 50(dmk)
158ChidambaramDMK
150JayankondamDMK
157Bhuvanagiri50(admk) - 50
159KattumannarkoilDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Mayiladuturai
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 5   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
160Sirkali50(admk) - 50
162PoompuharADMK
161MayiladuturaiADMK
172PapanasamADMK
171KumbakonamADMK
170ThiruvidamarudurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Nagapattinam
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
163NagapattinamADMK
165Vedaranyam50(admk) - 50
168TiruvarurDMK
169Nannilam50(admk) - 50
166ThiruthuraipoondiADMK
164KilvelurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Thanjavur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
173ThiruvaiyaruADMK
167MannargudiADMK
177PeravuraniADMK
176Pattukkottai50(admk) - 50
174ThanjavurDMK
175OrathanaduADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Sivaganga
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
185TiruppatturADMK
182AlangudiADMK
184KaraikudiADMK
181ThirumayamADMK
186SivagangaADMK
187ManamaduraiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Madurai
 
DMK+ : 3   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
188MelurDMK
194Madurai West50(admk) - 50
189Madurai EastDMK
191Madurai North50(admk) - 50
192Madurai South50(admk) - 50
193Madurai CentralDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Theni
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
190SholavandanADMK
199PeriyakulamADMK
200BodinayakkanurADMK
201CumbumADMK
198AndipattiADMK
197UsilampattiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Virudhunagar
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
207Aruppukottai50(admk) - 50
204SatturADMK
206VirudhunagarADMK
205SivakasiADMK
196Thirumangalam50 - 50(dmk)
195ThirupparankundramADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Ramanathapuram
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
211RamanathapuramADMK
209ParamakudiADMK
210Tiruvadanai50(admk) - 50
212MudukulathurADMK
208Tiruchuli50(admk) - 50
183ArantangiDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Thoothukkudi
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 2  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
218KoilpattiADMK
214Thoothukkudi50(admk) - 50
216Srivaikuntam50(admk) - 50
215TiruchendurDMK
217OttapidaramADMK
213VilathikulamADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tenkasi
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
219SankaranayanarkoilADMK
203SrivilliputhurADMK
221KadayanallurADMK
222TenkasiADMK
202RajapalayamADMK
220VasudevanallurADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Tirunelveli
 
DMK+ : 2   ADMK+ : 3   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
224Tirunelveli50(admk) - 50
228RadhapuramADMK
227NanguneriDMK
225AmbasamudramADMK
226PalayamcottaiDMK
223AlangulamADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kanniyakumari
 
DMK+ : 5   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
229KanniyakumariDMK
230NagercoilBJP
231ColachelDMK
232PadmanabhapuramDMK
233VilavancodeDMK
234KilliyoorDMK
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