# Wednesday, April 13, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecasts

0 % Swing 5 % Swing 7% Swing
ADMK+ 118 142 173
DMK+ 115 91 60

 

ADMK will get :  118  to 173 seats

DMK will get : 115 to 60 seats

Unlike past elections 1996,2001 or even 2006 DMK has tasted the victory by giving Cash for votes. The numbers in 0% swing is just taken from the previous election(Parliamentary Election 2009 and State Assembly Election 2006). If the DMK's money didnt play its very very easy for ADMK alliance to get 173 seats.

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

Highly probable !!

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 1)

 

Lets wait awhile !

#    Comments [6] |
# Tuesday, April 12, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

Theory 3 - These results are based on the major factor : (a) Anti-Incumbency wave - (5%) swing & ( b) Family based politics & Corruption (2%) swing


Highly probable !!
ADMK + :               173
DMK + :               60


ADMK+ :               113
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 105

DMK+ :                43
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) :     77
     Tossup :           7
     50(admk) - 50      (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) :     57
     50 - 50(dmk)      (ie., but inclined towards DMK) :     13

Others (including BJP) :           1




Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvallur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
2PonneriADMK
4TiruvallurADMK
5PoonamalleeADMK
6AvadiADMK
9MadavaramADMK
1GummidipundiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai North
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
15Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar50(admk) - 50
10ThiruvottiyurADMK
12PeramburADMK
17RoyapuramADMK
13KolathurDMK
11Dr. Radhakrishnan NagarADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai South
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
22VirugampakkamADMK
23SaidapetADMK
24Thiyagarayanagar50(admk) - 50
25MylaporeADMK
26VelacheryADMK
27ShozhinganallurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai Central
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
16EgmoreDMK
14Villivakkam50 - 50(dmk)
19Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni50 - 50(dmk)
20Thousand Lights50(admk) - 50
21Anna NagarADMK
18HarbourADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Sriperumbudur
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
31TambaramADMK
7MaduravoyalADMK
8AmbatturADMK
28AlandurADMK
30Pallavaram50(admk) - 50
29SriperumbudurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Kancheepuram
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 1   Equally competitive : 4  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
36Uthiramerur50(admk) - 50
34Cheyyur50(admk) - 50
32Chengalpattu50(admk) - 50
37KancheepuramDMK
35MaduranthakamADMK
33Tirupporur50(admk) - 50

#    Comments [0] |

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2)

(Theory 2) - These results are based on the major factor : Anti-Incumbency wave (5%) swing


ADMK + :               142
DMK + :               91


ADMK+ :               70
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 62

DMK+ :                43
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) :     120
     Tossup :           48
     50(admk) - 50      (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) :     48
     50 - 50(dmk)      (ie., but inclined towards DMK) :     24

Others (including BJP) :           1




Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvallur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
2PonneriADMK
4TiruvallurADMK
5PoonamalleeADMK
6AvadiADMK
9MadavaramADMK
1GummidipundiADMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai North
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
15Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar50 - 50
10Thiruvottiyur50(admk) - 50
12PeramburADMK
17RoyapuramADMK
13KolathurDMK
11Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai South
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
22VirugampakkamADMK
23SaidapetADMK
24Thiyagarayanagar50 - 50
25MylaporeADMK
26VelacheryADMK
27ShozhinganallurDMK

Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai Central
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 0   Equally competitive : 5  
 
AC No.Assembly ConstituenciesWinning Chance
 
16EgmoreDMK
14Villivakkam50 - 50(dmk)
19Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni50 - 50(dmk)
20Thousand Lights50 - 50
21Anna Nagar50(admk) - 50
18Harbour50(admk) - 50

#    Comments [0] |
# Saturday, April 09, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 1)

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 1)

(Theory 1)- These results doesnt include any Anti-Incumbency wave. Check out the other forecast - which includes the major factors. This result is the maximum DMK alliance can get in the TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011


ADMK + :               118
DMK + :               115


ADMK+ :               70
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 62

DMK+ :                43
     Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2
     Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) :     120
     Tossup :           0
     50(admk) - 50      (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) :     48
     50 - 50(dmk)      (ie., but inclined towards DMK) :     72

Others (including BJP) :           1




Parliamentary Constituency :    Tiruvallur
 
DMK+ : 0   ADMK+ : 6   Equally competitive : 0  
 
2PonneriADMK
4TiruvallurADMK
5PoonamalleeADMK
6AvadiADMK
9MadavaramADMK
1GummidipundiADMK



Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai North
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 2   Equally competitive : 3  
 
15Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar50 - 50(dmk)
10Thiruvottiyur50(admk) - 50
12PeramburADMK
17RoyapuramADMK
13KolathurDMK
11Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar50(admk) - 50



Parliamentary Constituency :    Chennai South
 
DMK+ : 1   ADMK+ : 4   Equally competitive : 1  
 
22VirugampakkamADMK
23SaidapetADMK
24Thiyagarayanagar50 - 50(dmk)
25MylaporeADMK
26VelacheryADMK
27ShozhinganallurDMK

#    Comments [0] |
# Friday, March 27, 2009

PMK – AIADMK alliance confirmed

PMK – AIADMK alliance confirmed

 

Through PMK's general council meeting they announced the alliance with AIADMK. J Jayalalithaa has given them given seven Lok Sabha seats and one Rajya Sabha nomination by the AIADMK. This was news expected for a longtime.

Pattali Makkal Katchi the strong (OBC)Caste based community supporting party in TamilNadu again moved to AIADMK for election and clearly mentioned that it has interest to tie-up with Congress in the Central after election if necessary.

"My personal relationship with Sonia Gandhi and the Congress party would continue. This is a political understanding," says Anbumani Ramadoss.

DMK’s  Dayanidhi Maran says in an attempt at damage control, "Their (PMK's) exit gives us more seats to contest and they will come back after we sweep the polls."

 

For the last five elections PMK has moved from one alliance to the other in all the elections and was in power always. Watch this place for more details…

#    Comments [28] |
# Tuesday, March 10, 2009

AIADMK didnt pull Congress says Amma

AIADMK didnt pull Congress

ADMK didnt call congress for any alliance. Amma did a big U turn

Few weeks back, Jayalalitha the AIADMK's Amma openly called Congress for her alliance.
But last week, the AIADMK leader, in a statement, said she had only cautioned the Congress not to get into the quicksand along with the DMK, which was facing the wrath of the people for its anti-people activities. Considering the long - time friendship between the AIADMK and the Congress and with good intention, she had advised the Congress to come out of the DMK-led alliance in Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa said, adding, ''I never invited the Congress to come back to the AIADMK alliance.''

Reason that can be : (Jayalalithaa Future plan)
As we know in the coming General Election 2009,  Congress and the BJP led NDA will have a tie in the centre, or none of them including the Third Front will not be able to come to power. And it is expected in TamilNadu, and ADMK alliance might get  20+ seats ie., 50% of 40 including pondy. If Jayalalitha is lucky - either PMK joins ADMK or DMDK(Vijayakanth) stays away from Congress/DMK then Jayalalitha's share in the 40 seats will increase to even 25 to 30.

In that case, she might use this to woo Congress as its life or death for them....

[ Source ]

#    Comments [17] |
# Thursday, February 19, 2009

Will Congress tie up with Jayalalitha AIADMK

 Will Congress tie up with Jayalalitha (AIADMK) ??

Jayalalithaa is suggesting Congress (INC) to come out of the DMK alliance which indirectly means shaking hands with AIADMK.

In her statement Jayalalitha said :

“Take back your hand (off DMK),” Jayalalithaa extolled to the Congress, punning on the word ‘hand’, also the latter’s poll symbol. Emphasising that a huge anti-incumbency factor stared at the DMK, Jayalalithaa claimed that the people were waiting to “teach the DMK a fitting lesson” in the coming polls. Hence, if Congress wished to avoid that scenario, “it should at once sever ties with DMK,” she asserted.

Congress is still a side dish in TamilNadu. If PMK also join hands with AIADMK then Jayalalitha alliance might sweep the 40 seats. Or atleast 35+ including Pondy. The whole of SouthIndia is on fire for Congress. Hopefully DMK wont allow this to happen and people like P Chidambaram etc are just Anti-JJ Congressmen.

 

#    Comments [8] |
# Friday, April 21, 2006

Modakurichi : ADMK PC Ramasamy, was denied in the last minute

ADMK 's P C Ramasamy denied ticket in Modakurichi

AIADMK PC Ramasamy

In the last minute, sitting MLA of Modakurichi & the Minister for Hindu Religious and Charitable Endowments was given seat to contest in the forthcoming TamilNadu Assembly election 2006 in the same constituency was taken over, suddenly he (P. C. Ramasamy) was replaced by V. P. Namasivayam.

Modakurichi Assembly constituency had 1033 contestants in 1996 TamilNadu Assembly Election. Result was like there was some contestants bagging 0 votes. So, I hope this is a world record, may be like no one could have checked it!!! So few people are aware of this constituency, which is in Erode District. The current Minister of State Ms. Subbu Lakshmi Jegadeesan, was the DMK contestant in 1996, and she was elected to power. And in 2001 Assembly election, Subbu Lakshmi Jegadeesan lost in the same contituency to P C Ramasamy of AIADMK.

And in 2004 General Election DMK President M Karunanidhi placed her as Parliamentary Constituent contestant, and she won. DMK has a strong hold in this Modakurichi Constituency from 80 's. But this time, I don't know why DMK have given this place to Congress, which fields Palanisamy(hopefully a supporter of EVKS Elangovan).

Along with PC Ramasamy of Modakurichi Constituency, J Jayalalitha have replaced the Palani Constituency candidate R Tamilarasi by S Prema.

  AC No AC Name New Candidate Old Candidate
118 Modakurichi Palanisamy P C Ramasamy
  129 Palani S. Prema Tamilarasi

The updated AIADMK Candidate list for Assembly Election 2006 is here.

Update :

AIADMK lost Modakurichi Constituency to Palanisamy, a congress Candidate in 3860 votes.

#    Comments [3] |
# Monday, April 17, 2006

Sarathkumar joins ADMK -Jayalalitha

Sarathkumar joins ADMK

Sarathkumar joins Admk

Well known Tamil Cine actor and DMK Rajya Sabha MP, R Sarath Kumar, resigned from the primary membership of the DMK party a week back. And now he joined the AIADMK in the presence of Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa in Theni. Also his wife and famous Cine Actress Radhika joined in ADMK.

Last week when he sent a resignation letter to the DMK chief M Karunanidhi, he was silent about his MP Post. So I was concluding like, after elections he may re-join the party. Also, many programmes hosted in Sun TV(also in the whole Sun Network) was produced by Radaan TV, which is owned by Radhika. So we came to a conclusion that, they won't move from DMK.

But, Elango a friend of mine told me that he is getting ready to join AIADMK, which I considered as a rumour, but it happened.

Sarathkumar said, "After hectic consultations with fans, people in close circles and the public, I have taken this decision. It might be a delayed one. But the decision was final."

Sarathkumar had joined the DMK in 1998, and in the same year he contested for the Lok Sabha from Tirunelveli Parliamentary Constituency and lost his victory to ADMK candidate in just 6900 votes(1.5%)

The main reason could be :

1. Sarathkumar could have asked a seat for Radhika in the coming TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006, that too in some particular constituency where his caste have a upper hand.

2. Previously it was said (mostly a rumour) that they had some problem with Maran family (Sun Network) since many of their TV serials in Tamil is just dubbed to other channels in the languages like Telugu, Malayalam & Kannada. And Radhika was asking for some more money etc.,

3. In my view, if AIADMK comes to power this time, DMK can't come to power in future. So, the couples planned and quit. May be also they might have some problems with someone strong in DMK!!

#    Comments [5] |
# Wednesday, March 29, 2006

Kalimuthu out : 4 ADMK Candidates changed

K. Kalimuthu out from AIADMK List

This monday AIADMK announced its list of 182 candidates for TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006, which is scheduled for this May. Yesterday, they have changed the 4 contestant which includes, K. Kalimuthu, former Speaker of the Tamil Nadu Assembly. Its said that he was picked out due to his physical unfitness, so we can expect him in

#    Comments [0] |
# Tuesday, March 28, 2006

2001 ADMK TN Assembly Election Candidate List

2001 AIADMK Tamil Nadu Assembly Election Candidate List

In 2001, AIADMK contested in 141 Assembly Constituency(s). The remaining 93 seats were given to its alliance parties like Congress, TMC, PMK, CPI & CPI(M).

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ADMK Vs DMK in 2006 Assembly Polls

ADMK Vs DMK



List of Assembly Constituecies where AIADMK & DMK are going to field its candidate. By this weekend its expected that, both AIADMK & DMK to announce the candidate list. Last week itself both the parties announced the break up of
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AIADMK releases 2006 contestant name list

ADMK Candidate list


for TN election 2006


AIADMK announces its candidate list for TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006


AC - Assembly Constituency

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# Friday, March 24, 2006
# Monday, March 06, 2006

Vaiko joins AIADMK

VAIKO (MDMK) joined AIADMK

for TN Assembly Election 2006


Amma offers 35

Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) allied with Tamil Nadu's ruling All - India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) for forthcoming Tamil Nadu Assebly Election 2006. MDMK general secretary Vaiko met AIADMK general secretary and Chief Minister Jayalalitha at her Poes Garden residence here on Saturday and together they announced that the MDMK would contest 35 seats in the May 8 2006 Assembly elections.

So, as of now AIADMK Allies are :  MDMK (35 seats ) + DPI ( 9 seats )

It was also said that M Karunanidhi offered 22 seats to MDMK, indeed Vaiko asked for 25.

Vaiko said the AIADMK-led alliance would "sweep" the polls. "This is the finest hour in the political history of Tamil Nadu. The alliance is a formidable one".

But two weeks back, V Gopalasamy (Vaiko) said, "I was in the prison under Prevention of Terrorism Act for 19 months. MDMK is a movement full of self-respect. I will not give up self-respect at any cost." He also added, "We will fight till the end and will not knee down before anybody."

J Jayalalitha told press,  "We do not believe in turning back. We believe in looking at the future and the future is going to be glorious for the AIADMK and the MDMK." This is mainly said to make soft about VAIKO 's imprisonment for over 18 months under POTA.

Its is expected that Amma is waiting for Vijayakanth to get in. In that case it will be a big + for Amma ;-)

Also, Vaiko said, despite of  the electoral ties with the AIADMK, the MDMK would be part of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the centre.

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# Sunday, March 05, 2006

K A Sengottaiyan (ADMK) - The Come Back Kid

K A Sengottaiyan - Come Back Kid

After his defeat in 1996 TamilNadu Assembly election, KA Sengottaiyan the Ex - Transport Minister was facing may problems due to corruption charges filed against him. Even once he was sentenced to four years Rigorous Imprisonment (RI) and a fine of Rs 1.05 lakh.

But after 2001 Election results, the charges against him was becoming weak. And in Feb 18 this year, the court acquitted him in all charges.

He was also visible in many AIADMK ceremonies in the past 2 years. And now he is one of the member in the Team formed by J Jayalalitha to talk to ADMK allies regarding seat sharing.

K A Sengottaiyan contested from Gobichettipalayam Assembly Constituency in 1991 and was selected as a MLA, and once in 1996 he lost. Due to the charges, he couldn't contest in 2001 Assembly election as well.

I believe, Mr. Sengottaiyan will contest in Gobichettipalayam Constituency this 2006 Assembly election.

Update :  As expected Mr. KA Sengottaiyan, Ex - Transport Minister is going to contest in the Tamil Nadu Assembly Election 2006 from Gobi Assembly Constituency, which is also his native. His name was listed in the AIADMK candidate list.

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