HOW LONG CAN INDIA KEEP QUIET ON LANKA VIOLENCE ?

After more than four years of relatively calm environment, the situation in Srilanka has gone back to "square 1". All the efforts of Norway mediated peace talks seems to be going in vein. Both the parties have got a new reason to break the ceasefire, the control of 'Maavil Aaru' reservoir. Srilankan forces resorted to airstrikes to open up the LTTE blocked sluice gates of water canal, which is the source of irrigation for srilanka troops controlled downstream areas.

Both the parties are blaming each other and have put the Norway mediated Feb 2002 ceasefire agreement into backburner.

The worst and most recent of all is the Srilankan airforce bombing an orphanage in Tigers controlled area, which LTTE claims to have killed 61 children and the Tigers repulsive attack on Pakistan High Commissioner convoy in columbo.
Last week, 15 people working for the French humanitarian agency, 'Action Against Hunger' were killed in Muttur because of Lankan military bombings. And the list continues ....

The fighting in last two weeks alone have displaced more than 30000 innocent civilians in the area. This also leads a huge influx of refugees into India. There is nothing worse than to live as refugees in their own home land. Even many risk their lives to cross over to Tami Nadu as refugees. United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees(UNHCR) has urged those planning on making

Vaiko Vs SUN TV

A Month back, Vaiko join hands with ADMK to face the TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006. Before that he was in UPA which was led by DMK in Tamil Nadu. As there is only one month left for election, hot campaigning is going on in most places in TamilNadu.

M Karunanidhi & his Nephew Maran & family have many TV channels(Sun Network), Print Media & FM Radio licenses. The list of them are :

TV Networks : SunTV, KTV, Sun Music, Sun News, SuryaTV, KiranTV, GeminiTV, TejaTV, AdithyaTV,Teja News, UdayaTV, UsheTV, Udaya2 & Udaya News.

FM Radio : Suryan FM - Chennai,  Suryan FM - Coimbatore, Suryan FM - Tirunelveli  & Vishaka FM. (4) + its said that they have license to operate in 20 places.

Print Media :  Dailies :    Dinakaran & Tamizh Murasu  Other Magazines : Kungumum, Mutharam, Vannathirai, Kumguma Chimizh. And they have some more in Other languages too.

Its started like, VAIKO few weeks back commented that DMK Chief M Karunanidhi is holding more than 50% of the media in South India which is not fair etc.,
But its true. Even once I have read somewhere that they have a market share of 66% in daily TV viewers category.

Since after he left DMK Led UPA, he started commenting DMK & its President M Karunanidhi, which is normal since every political leader who quits one alliance & joins another do the same. The issue started of when he started pouring words about Karunanidhi 's TV network & the other group of Media.

Suddenly, yesterday (02 April 2006) in Sun TV News they were questioning VAIKO that why he(VAIKO)didn't try to bring to people 's notice that Sun TV group has got these things, while he was in DMK Led DPA alliance ??

Also there was a solid 5 minutes listing of all BigB s in the world media (starting from Times in US, till Zee TV in India) in the SUN TV News explaining that each of the companies have Dailies, Magazines & TV Channels, they meant like :not only SUN TV & group have a foot in all kind of News & Information Media, even others have more than what they have,  whiich is highly acceptable.

But onething they have CONCEALED in that News is none of the media group (owners / controllers) other than SUN TV & group is in Politics, raw POLITICS. Everyone must accept this, even you can't say NO to yourself!

Seat sharing : TN Election 2006

As TamilNadu Assembly term is going to expire this May 2006, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced date for conducting polls in the state. Since then, all the major parties in TamilNadu were busy in negotiating seats with their allies. Unexpectedly Vaiko, join hands with AIADMK to face the TN Assembly election 2006, and others are as usual. But still BJP & Vijayakanth 's stance is not clear, since the two parties announced that they are going to face the election alone, making the 4 axial competition viz., AIADMK, DMK Led UPA, BJP & Vijayakanth 's DMDK. There is more than a month so there is a possibility of BJP joining AIADMK led alliance.

DMK & Allies :

* Union Muslim League will contest in DMK symbol Rising Sun, so DMK is contesting in 132 seats (129 + 3) in total.

AIADMK & Allies :

* J Jayalalitha is talking with other small unrecognized parties, which may in total get 15 seats or less. So, AIADMK will contest in 175 seats minimum. 

Stance : BJP & Vijayakanth (DMDK)

On March 01 of this month, Election Commission announced the Polling Date for the TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006. Since then, the major political parties are settling with their alliance & seat sharing talks with their Allies. And on today, most of the parties are getting ready to prepare the list of candidates for the May 2006 Tamil Nadu Assembly Election. But Bharathiya Janatha Party(BJP) & Vijayakanth 's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) says, they want to contest on their own.

For BJP which was a ally of DMK in 2001 TN Assembly Election, contested in 21 places & captured 4 seats to the Assembly and got around 3.2 % of total polled votes. And in 2004 Lok Sabha Election it was voted out of power from the central cabinet ministery & also in TamilNadu they tied-up with ruling AIADMK & lost all the 6 seats and got a total of 4 % of  polled votes. So their total  weightage will not be more than 5%. So, if they contest in all 234 seats, they will get only 2 to 3 seats to the maximum. And take Vaiko(MDMK) for example in 2001 TN Assebly Election, they lost all the 214 contested seats & even forfeited the deposits in 205 places with around 5.6% of polled votes. No one expected it & even I thought that they will get around 3 to 5 seats. So, in my view its not advisable for BJP to contest alone. Else if they joins AIADMK, Chief Minister of TamilNadu & AIADMK Head J Jayalalitha will allot not more than 25 seats. And in that, BJP can win 10 seats to the maximum, something is better than nothing!!

But for Vijayakanth 's DMDK the issues are different. For them it is the first election, & the party have only one plus point is that "karuppu MGR" Vijayakanth. In 100 % of the total voters in TamilNadu,  60% & are lower class people & 30% are from Middle class & 10% are from upper middle class & above. As a popular cine actor Vijayakanth 's total members in his all Fan club competes with that of Rajinikanth, the Super Star of Tamil Cinema & dazzling icon of the indian cine industry. In total voters, there is a possibility of karuppu MGR to get around 10% in which lower class people votes comprises 6-7% and other 2% each. Actually this vote bank is just a theoretical one,  which was given by many Tamil Magazines. But, the mass gathering happened on his party opening ceremony was so much, which is still happening in all his tours, so that can be true. So, we can't say exactly, how much votebank he has, and I feel, that his votebank is mainly taken from DMK & PMK. Still Vijayakanth says that he want to contest alone, but anything may happen!!!

But, as told by magazines, DMDK has a vote bank of 10%, which when contest alone can get 15 seats to the maximum. May be like, they can avoid losing deposits in 70 assembly constituency thats all.

BJP & DMDK (Vijayakanth) together ?

News are coming that BJP is talking with DMDK for alliance & so there is also a possibility that they can join. But for Vijayakanth, it is better he can join J Jayalalitha led AIADMK alliance or to contest alone. If he join hands with BJP, then he can't blame all political parties in general, since his ally is also a Major political party. And if he contest alone, he can campaign like  : none of the parties are doing great, so give us a change or something like that. But either way he can get a maximum of 15 - 20 seats, which is also considered to be very high.