Wednesday, April 13, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecasts

	0 % Swing	5 % Swing	7% Swing
ADMK+	118	142	173
DMK+	115	91	60

ADMK will get : 118 to 173 seats

DMK will get : 115 to 60 seats

Unlike past elections 1996,2001 or even 2006 DMK has tasted the victory by giving Cash for votes. The numbers in 0% swing is just taken from the previous election(Parliamentary Election 2009 and State Assembly Election 2006). If the DMK's money didnt play its very very easy for ADMK alliance to get 173 seats.

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

Highly probable !!

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 1)

Lets wait awhile !

AIADMK - ADMK | DMK | News | TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecasts | 2011

Comments [4] |

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 3) - 7 percent SWING against incumbent DMK Government

Theory 3 - These results are based on the major factor : (a) Anti-Incumbency wave - (5%) swing & ( b) Family based politics & Corruption (2%) swing

Highly probable !!

ADMK + : 173

DMK + : 60

ADMK+ : 113

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 105

DMK+ : 43

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) : 77

Tossup : 7

50(admk) - 50 (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) : 57

50 - 50(dmk) (ie., but inclined towards DMK) : 13

Others (including BJP) : 1

Parliamentary Constituency : Tiruvallur

DMK+ : 0 ADMK+ : 6 Equally competitive : 0

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

2	Ponneri	ADMK
4	Tiruvallur	ADMK
5	Poonamallee	ADMK
6	Avadi	ADMK
9	Madavaram	ADMK
1	Gummidipundi	ADMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai North

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 4 Equally competitive : 1

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

15	Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar	50(admk) - 50
10	Thiruvottiyur	ADMK
12	Perambur	ADMK
17	Royapuram	ADMK
13	Kolathur	DMK
11	Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar	ADMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai South

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 4 Equally competitive : 1

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

22	Virugampakkam	ADMK
23	Saidapet	ADMK
24	Thiyagarayanagar	50(admk) - 50
25	Mylapore	ADMK
26	Velachery	ADMK
27	Shozhinganallur	DMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai Central

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 2 Equally competitive : 3

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

16	Egmore	DMK
14	Villivakkam	50 - 50(dmk)
19	Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni	50 - 50(dmk)
20	Thousand Lights	50(admk) - 50
21	Anna Nagar	ADMK
18	Harbour	ADMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Sriperumbudur

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 4 Equally competitive : 1

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

31	Tambaram	ADMK
7	Maduravoyal	ADMK
8	Ambattur	ADMK
28	Alandur	ADMK
30	Pallavaram	50(admk) - 50
29	Sriperumbudur	DMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Kancheepuram

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 1 Equally competitive : 4

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

36	Uthiramerur	50(admk) - 50
34	Cheyyur	50(admk) - 50
32	Chengalpattu	50(admk) - 50
37	Kancheepuram	DMK
35	Maduranthakam	ADMK
33	Tirupporur	50(admk) - 50

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2) - 5 percent Anti - Incumbency WAVE

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 2)

(Theory 2) - These results are based on the major factor : Anti-Incumbency wave (5%) swing

ADMK + : 142

DMK + : 91

ADMK+ : 70

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 62

DMK+ : 43

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) : 120

Tossup : 48

50(admk) - 50 (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) : 48

50 - 50(dmk) (ie., but inclined towards DMK) : 24

Others (including BJP) : 1

Parliamentary Constituency : Tiruvallur

DMK+ : 0 ADMK+ : 6 Equally competitive : 0

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

2	Ponneri	ADMK
4	Tiruvallur	ADMK
5	Poonamallee	ADMK
6	Avadi	ADMK
9	Madavaram	ADMK
1	Gummidipundi	ADMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai North

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 2 Equally competitive : 3

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

15	Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar	50 - 50
10	Thiruvottiyur	50(admk) - 50
12	Perambur	ADMK
17	Royapuram	ADMK
13	Kolathur	DMK
11	Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar	50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai South

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 4 Equally competitive : 1

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

22	Virugampakkam	ADMK
23	Saidapet	ADMK
24	Thiyagarayanagar	50 - 50
25	Mylapore	ADMK
26	Velachery	ADMK
27	Shozhinganallur	DMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai Central

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 0 Equally competitive : 5

AC No.	Assembly Constituencies	Winning Chance

16	Egmore	DMK
14	Villivakkam	50 - 50(dmk)
19	Chepauk-Thiruvallikeni	50 - 50(dmk)
20	Thousand Lights	50 - 50
21	Anna Nagar	50(admk) - 50
18	Harbour	50(admk) - 50

TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011 Results Forecast (Theory 1)

(Theory 1)- These results doesnt include any Anti-Incumbency wave. Check out the other forecast - which includes the major factors. This result is the maximum DMK alliance can get in the TamilNadu Assembly Election 2011

ADMK + : 118

DMK + : 115

ADMK+ : 70

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 8

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 62

DMK+ : 43

Very good Margin Seats ( 15,000+ ) : 2

Good Margin Seats ( 7,000+ ) : 41

50 - 50 ( Tossup / Decision Inconclusive) : 120

Tossup : 0

50(admk) - 50 (ie., but inclined towards ADMK) : 48

50 - 50(dmk) (ie., but inclined towards DMK) : 72

Others (including BJP) : 1

Parliamentary Constituency : Tiruvallur

DMK+ : 0 ADMK+ : 6 Equally competitive : 0

2	Ponneri	ADMK
4	Tiruvallur	ADMK
5	Poonamallee	ADMK
6	Avadi	ADMK
9	Madavaram	ADMK
1	Gummidipundi	ADMK

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai North

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 2 Equally competitive : 3

15	Thiru-Vi-Ka-Nagar	50 - 50(dmk)
10	Thiruvottiyur	50(admk) - 50
12	Perambur	ADMK
17	Royapuram	ADMK
13	Kolathur	DMK
11	Dr. Radhakrishnan Nagar	50(admk) - 50

Parliamentary Constituency : Chennai South

DMK+ : 1 ADMK+ : 4 Equally competitive : 1

22	Virugampakkam	ADMK
23	Saidapet	ADMK
24	Thiyagarayanagar	50 - 50(dmk)
25	Mylapore	ADMK
26	Velachery	ADMK
27	Shozhinganallur	DMK