On March 01 of this month, Election Commission announced the Polling Date for the TamilNadu Assembly Election 2006. Since then, the major political parties are settling with their alliance & seat sharing talks with their Allies. And on today, most of the parties are getting ready to prepare the list of candidates for the May 2006 Tamil Nadu Assembly Election. But Bharathiya Janatha Party(BJP) & Vijayakanth 's Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) says, they want to contest on their own.
For BJP which was a ally of DMK in 2001 TN Assembly Election, contested in 21 places & captured 4 seats to the Assembly and got around 3.2 % of total polled votes. And in 2004 Lok Sabha Election it was voted out of power from the central cabinet ministery & also in TamilNadu they tied-up with ruling AIADMK & lost all the 6 seats and got a total of 4 % of polled votes. So their total weightage will not be more than 5%. So, if they contest in all 234 seats, they will get only 2 to 3 seats to the maximum. And take Vaiko(MDMK) for example in 2001 TN Assebly Election, they lost all the 214 contested seats & even forfeited the deposits in 205 places with around 5.6% of polled votes. No one expected it & even I thought that they will get around 3 to 5 seats. So, in my view its not advisable for BJP to contest alone. Else if they joins AIADMK, Chief Minister of TamilNadu & AIADMK Head J Jayalalitha will allot not more than 25 seats. And in that, BJP can win 10 seats to the maximum, something is better than nothing!!
But for Vijayakanth 's DMDK the issues are different. For them it is the first election, & the party have only one plus point is that "karuppu MGR" Vijayakanth. In 100 % of the total voters in TamilNadu, 60% & are lower class people & 30% are from Middle class & 10% are from upper middle class & above. As a popular cine actor Vijayakanth 's total members in his all Fan club competes with that of Rajinikanth, the Super Star of Tamil Cinema & dazzling icon of the indian cine industry. In total voters, there is a possibility of karuppu MGR to get around 10% in which lower class people votes comprises 6-7% and other 2% each. Actually this vote bank is just a theoretical one, which was given by many Tamil Magazines. But, the mass gathering happened on his party opening ceremony was so much, which is still happening in all his tours, so that can be true. So, we can't say exactly, how much votebank he has, and I feel, that his votebank is mainly taken from DMK & PMK. Still Vijayakanth says that he want to contest alone, but anything may happen!!!
But, as told by magazines, DMDK has a vote bank of 10%, which when contest alone can get 15 seats to the maximum. May be like, they can avoid losing deposits in 70 assembly constituency thats all.
BJP & DMDK (Vijayakanth) together ?
News are coming that BJP is talking with DMDK for alliance & so there is also a possibility that they can join. But for Vijayakanth, it is better he can join J Jayalalitha led AIADMK alliance or to contest alone. If he join hands with BJP, then he can't blame all political parties in general, since his ally is also a Major political party. And if he contest alone, he can campaign like : none of the parties are doing great, so give us a change or something like that. But either way he can get a maximum of 15 - 20 seats, which is also considered to be very high.